2025 was a record year for global M&A. The question now is whether that momentum holds, and what it actually means for Swedish companies considering a change of ownership or an acquisition. Here is what we know, what we believe, and where we are keeping a close eye.

A Record Year Globally – With an Uneven Distribution

Globally, 2025 closed as the year with the highest number of M&A transactions ever recorded. Approximately 50,800 deals were completed at a combined value of nearly $5 trillion, an increase of 37 percent in value compared to 2024. It is the first time deal count has exceeded 50,000 and the closest we have come to the $5 trillion threshold.

(Source: PitchBook 2025 Annual Global M&A Report, published 30 January 2026)

Much of that increase was driven by the very largest transactions, so-called megadeals, defined as transactions exceeding $1 billion in value. There were 617 such deals in 2025, up 28 percent. They alone accounted for 56.6 percent of total global M&A value.

Impressive figures. But they do not tell the whole story, and they do not necessarily say anything directly about the situation facing a mid-sized, family-owned Swedish company.

Europe – A Record Year in Deal Volume

Europe was far from a sideshow in this story. On the contrary: 2025 saw a new record in the number of transactions on the European M&A market. Nearly 21,000 deals were completed, at a combined value of $1.3 trillion, just below the record set in 2021.

(Source: PitchBook 2025 Annual Global M&A Report)

Europe also recorded, for the third consecutive year, more M&A transactions than North America, and the gap widened further during 2025. Capital continued to flow in from North America, driven by relatively lower valuations and geographic diversification.

A clear trend: private equity accounted for 50.7 percent of total European M&A value in 2025, up from 32.1 percent a decade earlier. The PE sector is claiming an ever-larger role as a buyer, including in the very largest transactions.

(Source: PitchBook 2025 Annual Global M&A Report)

The Nordics and Sweden – A Strong Year With Good Momentum

Sweden and the Nordics had a genuinely strong 2025. Across the four largest Nordic economies, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland, a total of 2,473 deals were completed at a combined value of $90.5 billion over the full year. That exceeds all of 2024 in both volume and value.

Sweden led the Nordics in both deal count and total value. Swedish companies as targets accounted for the highest deal value in the region, totalling $34.3 billion.

PE activity was particularly strong. Sponsor-driven transactions (buyouts, secondary buyouts and exits) reached $34.5 billion across the Nordics, a significant increase from $19.2 billion in 2024.

(Source: White & Case M&A Explorer – Northern dealmaking heats up, December 2025)

The largest buyout in the region was EQT and First Kraft's bid for Fortnox, a cloud-based accounting platform, valued at $4.5 billion. It signals continued strong demand for well-run Swedish technology companies with recurring revenue.

The Swedish Macroeconomic Backdrop

The economic outlook is more positive than it has been in some time. Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, cut its policy rate three times during 2025, from 2.5 to 1.75 percent. In January 2026 the rate was held unchanged, and the Riksbank expects it to remain at that level for the foreseeable future.

(Source: Riksbank, press releases December 2025 and January 2026)

That is good news for M&A. Lower rates reduce the cost of financing acquisitions and lower buyers' required rates of return, which in practice pushes up the valuations of companies being sold.

The Riksbank also notes that the recovery is underway: growth came in above expectations in the autumn of 2025, inflation is approaching the 2 percent target, and the labour market is beginning to stabilise. ING forecasts that Swedish GDP growth could reach 2.5 percent in 2026, the strongest among the Nordic countries.

(Source: ING Think, SEK Outlook 2026, February 2026)

The expansionary 2026 national budget, with tax cuts and increased household stimulus equivalent to approximately 1 percent of GDP, is expected to provide additional support to domestic demand and consumption.

(Source: Morningstar Sverige, analysis published December 2025)

What Are the Global Advisors Saying About 2026?

The leading investment banks and consulting firms are broadly positive about 2026, but with important nuances.

Morgan Stanley points to five drivers for 2026: AI-related acquisitions, pressure on PE funds to both sell and buy, strategic separations (spin-offs), increased cross-border activity, and a growing market for minority investments in owner-managed companies. (Source: Morgan Stanley, Global M&A Activity Outlook, 2026)

Goldman Sachs highlights that the fundamental drivers are in place: capital is available, the IPO market is reopening, and strategic ambition is high. (Source: Goldman Sachs, 2026 Global M&A Outlook)

Lazard notes that global M&A value rose 40 percent in 2025 and that three trends defined the market: megadeals, a sharp increase in divestitures, and record activity in PE-driven take-privates. (Source: Lazard, 2025 M&A Review and 2026 Outlook, January 2026)

PwC is somewhat more cautious in tone. They see a "K-shaped" market: strength is concentrated in the very largest transactions and among the best-capitalised buyers. Deal volumes are expected to remain subdued, even as total value stays elevated. (Source: PwC, Global M&A Industry Trends 2026 Outlook)

BCG puts it well: optimism exists, but it is measured. The momentum from 2025 carries into 2026, but this is not a simple cyclical rebound. Structural change is driving the market as much as macroeconomics. (Source: BCG, M&A Outlook 2026: Expectations Are High – Again, January 2026)

What Does This Mean for Swedish Companies?

There are several concrete conclusions to draw for those who run or own a company in Sweden, whether as a potential seller, a buyer, or simply someone trying to understand the current landscape.

Buyers Are Active and Competition for Quality Companies Is Intensifying

Tobias Lundin at Weibull M&A put it well in a recent article: "There are a very large number of players who want to consolidate new markets and are sweeping the market for new companies." He notes that sellers' price expectations are rising as competition among buyers intensifies. (Source: Weibull M&A, LinkedIn / Rapidus, February 2026)

This aligns well with the global picture. A Citizens Bank survey shows that 79 percent of companies surveyed consider themselves potential sellers in 2026, the highest level in recent years. (Source: Citizens Bank, 2026 M&A Outlook Survey, January 2026)

Valuations Are Recovering

The European median transaction multiple (EV/EBITDA) rose to 9.6x in 2025, still below the 2021 peak but moving in the right direction. For smaller transactions below $100 million, the EV/revenue multiple is more stable, at around 1.0x. (Source: PitchBook 2025 Annual Global M&A Report)

Sectors Attracting the Most Capital

Globally, IT (technology and software), financial services and healthcare led M&A activity in 2025. In the Nordics specifically, life sciences and pharma topped deal value at $18.9 billion, while tech and business services remain the most active categories by transaction count. (Source: White & Case M&A Explorer, December 2025)

PE Funds Need to Exit

A structural driver worth understanding: there is a large number of PE-owned companies in portfolios that have been held longer than originally planned. In the Nordics, the average holding period has risen to 6.2 years, up from 4.3 years in 2020. (Source: Gain.pro, The State of Nordics Private Equity 2025)

This creates exit pressure that benefits buyers and may also increase the supply of interesting companies coming to market.

The Risks – Not to Be Swept Under the Rug

It would be dishonest not to mention the headwinds, and there are a few worth watching.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains the most visible risk. Russia's war, trade conflicts and US policy decisions have created an unpredictable global environment. Sweden's export-dependent economy is more exposed than average.

High valuations in the AI sector globally, particularly in the US, represent a risk if a correction occurs. That would affect sentiment on the Stockholm Stock Exchange as well. (Source: Morningstar Sverige, December 2025)

The Riksbank specifically warns about household consumption behaviour, geopolitical conflicts, weak public finances in several countries, and elevated asset valuations. (Source: Riksbank, press release December 2025)

A Hidden Risk in Tech Portfolios: AI Wrappers

One issue that deserves its own chapter is what happens to all the SaaS companies whose business model is essentially a user interface built on top of a foundation model such as GPT or Claude, without any genuine proprietary technology, data or deep customer integration. So-called wrappers. Many such companies were valued highly between 2021 and 2023 and are today sitting in PE portfolios across the Nordics. As foundation models improve quarterly and the large platforms absorb the same functionality, differentiation erodes quickly. Data shows that AI-native companies of this type have a median gross revenue retention of just 40 percent, compared to 85 percent or more for well-run traditional SaaS companies. (Source: Growth Unhinged, The AI Churn Wave, December 2025)

This is not only about downside. The same AI capabilities that threaten a weak company can, if applied correctly, dramatically strengthen a company with a solid core. The key is knowing which category your holding falls into, and that requires analysis that goes deeper than the figures in the latest annual report.

We take a closer look at this topic in a dedicated post next week.

Summary

The conditions for M&A in Sweden are favourable. Interest rates are stable and reasonable. The economic outlook is improving. The buy side, PE funds, industrial buyers and international players, is active and well-capitalised. Competition for well-run companies is high, pushing prices upward.

This is not a frictionless environment: geopolitical uncertainty is real and much of global activity is concentrated in the very largest transactions. But for mid-sized Swedish companies with strong customer relationships, clear market positions and solid profitability, 2026 is likely to be a good year to navigate the market, whether that means selling, acquiring, or preparing for a future transaction.